Product Code Database
Example Keywords: angry birds -tomtom $18
   » » Wiki: Predictive Power
Tag Wiki 'Predictive Power'.
Tag

Predictive power
 (

 C O N T E N T S 

The concept of predictive power, the power of a scientific theory to generate predictions, differs from explanatory power and descriptive power (where phenomena that are already known are retrospectively explained or described by a given theory) in that it allows a prospective test of theoretical understanding.


Examples
A classic example of the predictive power of a theory is the discovery of Neptune as a result of predictions made by mathematicians John Couch Adams and Urbain Le Verrier, based on Newton's theory of gravity.

Another example of the predictive power of theories or models is 's use of his to predict previously undiscovered and their properties. Though largely correct, he misjudged the relative atomic masses of and .

Moreover, used his knowledge of by natural selection to predict that since a plant ( Angraecum sesquipedale) with a long spur in its flowers exists, a complementary animal with a 30 cm must also exist to feed on and it. Twenty years after his death, a form of ( Xanthopan morganii) that did just that was found.

Another example of predictive power is the prediction of 's theory of general relativity that the path of light would bend in the presence of a strong gravitational field. This was experimentally verified by an expedition to Sobral in and the island of Príncipe to measure star positions during the solar eclipse of May 29, 1919, when observations made by the astrophysicist seemed to confirm Einstein's predictions. Although the measurements have been criticized by some as utilizing flawed methodology,

(1993). 9780521477369, Cambridge University Press.
modern reanalysis of the data suggests that Eddington's analysis of the data was accurate. Later, more precise measurements taken by radio interferometry confirmed the predictions to a high degree of accuracy.


Applications
The predictive power of a theory is closely related to applications.

General relativity not only predicts the bending of light but also predicts several other phenomena. Recently, the calculation of of has been a successfully-measured prediction that is now incorporated into the method used to calculate positions via .

If a theory has no predictive power, it cannot be used for applications.


See also
  • Forecast verification
  • Probability of success
  • Problem of induction
  • Statistical model validation

Page 1 of 1
1
Page 1 of 1
1

Account

Social:
Pages:  ..   .. 
Items:  .. 

Navigation

General: Atom Feed Atom Feed  .. 
Help:  ..   .. 
Category:  ..   .. 
Media:  ..   .. 
Posts:  ..   ..   .. 

Statistics

Page:  .. 
Summary:  .. 
1 Tags
10/10 Page Rank
5 Page Refs