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A hypothesis (: hypotheses) is a proposed explanation for a phenomenon. A scientific hypothesis must be based on observations and make a testable and reproducible prediction about reality, in a process beginning with an educated guess or thought. If a hypothesis is repeatedly independently demonstrated by experiment to be true, it becomes a scientific theory. In colloquial usage, the words "hypothesis" and "theory" are often used interchangeably, but this is incorrect in the context of science.
A working hypothesis is a provisionally-accepted hypothesis used for the purpose of pursuing further progress in research. Working hypotheses are frequently discarded, and often proposed with knowledge (and Research ethics) that they are incomplete and thus false, with the intent of moving research in at least somewhat the right direction, especially when scientists are stuck on an issue and brainstorming ideas.
In formal logic, a hypothesis is the antecedent in a proposition. For example, in the proposition "If P, then Q", statement P denotes the hypothesis (or antecedent) of the consequent Q. Hypothesis P is the assumption in a (possibly counterfactual) "" question. The adjective "hypothetical" (having the nature of a hypothesis or being assumed to exist as an immediate consequence of a hypothesis), can refer to any of the above meanings of the term "hypothesis".
In Plato's Meno (86e–87b), Socrates dissects virtue with a method which he says is used by mathematicians, Wilbur Knorr, "Construction as existence proof in ancient geometry", p. 125, as selected by Jean Christianidis (ed.), Classics in the history of Greek mathematics, Kluwer. that of "investigating from a hypothesis".Gregory Vlastos, Myles Burnyeat (1994) Socratic studies, Cambridge , p. 1 In this sense, 'hypothesis' refers to a clever idea or a short cut, or a convenient mathematical approach that simplifies cumbersome ."Neutral hypotheses, those of which the subject matter can never be directly proved or disproved, are very numerous in all sciences." — Morris Cohen and Ernest Nagel (1934), An Introduction to Logic and Scientific Method, p. 375. New York: Harcourt, Brace, and Company. Cardinal Robert Bellarmine gave a famous example of this usage in the warning issued to Galileo Galilei in the early 17th century: that he must not treat the motion of the Earth as a reality, but merely as a hypothesis."Bellarmine (Ital. Bellarmino), Roberto Francesco Romolo", Encyclopædia Britannica, Eleventh Edition: "Bellarmine did not proscribe the Copernican system ... all he claimed was that it should be presented as a hypothesis until it should receive scientific demonstration."
In common usage in the 21st century, a hypothesis refers to a provisional idea whose merit requires evaluation. For proper evaluation, the framer of a hypothesis needs to define specifics in operational terms. A hypothesis requires more work by the researcher in order to either confirm or disprove it. In due course, a confirmed hypothesis may become part of a theory or occasionally may grow to become a theory itself. Normally, scientific hypotheses have the form of a mathematical model.Crease, Robert P. (2008) The Great Equations , p.112 lists the conservation of energy as an example of accounting a constant of motion. Hypothesized by Sadi Carnot, truth demonstrated by James Prescott Joule, proven by Emmy Noether. Sometimes, but not always, one can also formulate them as existential statements, stating that some particular instance of the phenomenon under examination has some characteristic and causal explanations, which have the general form of universal statements, stating that every instance of the phenomenon has a particular characteristic.
In entrepreneurial setting, a hypothesis is used to formulate provisional ideas about the attributes of products or business models. The formulated hypothesis is then evaluated, where the hypothesis is proven to be either "true" or "false" through a Authentication- or falsifiability-oriented experiment.
Any useful hypothesis will enable by reasoning (including deductive reasoning). It might predict the outcome of an experiment in a laboratory setting or the observation of a phenomenon in nature. The prediction may also invoke statistics and only talk about probabilities. Karl Popper, following others, has argued that a hypothesis must be Falsifiability, and that one cannot regard a proposition or theory as scientific if it does not admit the possibility of being shown to be false. Other philosophers of science have rejected the criterion of falsifiability or supplemented it with other criteria, such as verifiability (e.g., verificationism) or coherence (e.g., confirmation holism). The scientific method involves experimentation to test the ability of some hypothesis to adequately answer the question under investigation. In contrast, unfettered observation is not as likely to raise unexplained issues or open questions in science, as would the formulation of a crucial experiment to test the hypothesis. A thought experiment might also be used to test the hypothesis.
In framing a hypothesis, the investigator must not currently know the outcome of a test or that it remains reasonably under continuing investigation. Only in such cases does the experiment, test or study potentially increase the probability of showing the truth of a hypothesis. If the researcher already knows the outcome, it counts as a "consequence" — and the researcher should have already considered this while formulating the hypothesis. If one cannot assess the predictions by observation or by experience, the hypothesis needs to be tested by others providing observations. For example, a new technology or theory might make the necessary experiments feasible.
According to Schick and Vaughn, (2025). 9780767420488, McGraw-Hill Higher Education. ISBN 9780767420488 researchers weighing up alternative hypotheses may take into consideration:
The provisional nature of working hypotheses makes them useful as an organizing device in applied research. Here they act like a useful guide to address problems that are still in a formative phase.Patricia M. Shields and Nandhini Rangarajan. 2013. A Playbook for Research Methods: Integrating Conceptual Frameworks and Project Management. Stillwater, OK: New Forums Press. pp. 109–157
In recent years, philosophers of science have tried to integrate the various approaches to evaluating hypotheses, and the scientific method in general, to form a more complete system that integrates the individual concerns of each approach. Notably, Imre Lakatos and Paul Feyerabend, Karl Popper's colleague and student, respectively, have produced novel attempts at such a synthesis.
Hempel provides a useful metaphor that describes the relationship between a conceptual framework and the framework as it is observed and perhaps tested (interpreted framework). "The whole system floats, as it were, above the plane of observation and is anchored to it by rules of interpretation. These might be viewed as strings which are not part of the network but link certain points of the latter with specific places in the plane of observation. By virtue of those interpretative connections, the network can function as a scientific theory." Hypotheses with concepts anchored in the plane of observation are ready to be tested. In "actual scientific practice the process of framing a theoretical structure and of interpreting it are not always sharply separated, since the intended interpretation usually guides the construction of the theoretician". It is, however, "possible and indeed desirable, for the purposes of logical clarification, to separate the two steps conceptually".
In statistical hypothesis testing, two hypotheses are compared. These are called the null hypothesis and the alternative hypothesis. The null hypothesis is the hypothesis that states that there is no relation between the phenomena whose relation is under investigation, or at least not of the form given by the alternative hypothesis. The alternative hypothesis, as the name suggests, is the alternative to the null hypothesis: it states that there is some kind of relation. The alternative hypothesis may take several forms, depending on the nature of the hypothesized relation; in particular, it can be two-sided (for example: there is some effect, in a yet unknown direction) or one-sided (the direction of the hypothesized relation, positive or negative, is fixed in advance). Altman. DG., Practical Statistics for Medical Research, CRC Press, 1990, Section 8.5,
Conventional significance levels for testing hypotheses (acceptable probabilities of wrongly rejecting a true null hypothesis) are .10, .05, and .01. The significance level for deciding whether the null hypothesis is rejected and the alternative hypothesis is accepted must be determined in advance, before the observations are collected or inspected. If these criteria are determined later, when the data to be tested are already known, the test is invalid.Mellenbergh, G.J.(2008). Chapter 8: Research designs: Testing of research hypotheses. In H.J. Adèr & G.J. Mellenbergh (eds.) (with contributions by D.J. Hand), Advising on Research Methods: A consultant's companion (pp. 183–209). Huizen, The Netherlands: Johannes van Kessel Publishing
The above procedure is actually dependent on the number of the participants (units or sample size) that are included in the study. For instance, to avoid having the sample size be too small to reject a null hypothesis, it is recommended that one specify a sufficient sample size from the beginning. It is advisable to define a small, medium and large effect size for each of a number of important statistical tests which are used to test the hypotheses. Altman. DG., Practical Statistics for Medical Research, CRC Press, 1990, Section 15.3,
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