Horizon scanning (HS) or horizon scan is a method from futures studies, sometimes regarded as a part of foresight.[ biosecurity,][ and food safety.]
Some sources mention HS as an alternative name for environmental scanning (ES),
Etymology
One of the first usages of the term horizon scanning as related to futures studies appeared in 1995 in a paper discussing trends in information technology and forecasting the year 2005.[ Policy makers and planners of health services were the main target groups for knowledge produced by horizon scanning.][
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| + Definitions of Horizon Scanning |
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Horizon scanning is "the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning’ and, continuing, horizon scanning ‘may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems or trends." |
"Horizon scanning is the systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments including – but not restricted to – those that are at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems or trends." |
"Horizon Scanning is the systematic outlook to detect early signs of potentially important developments. These can be weak (or early) signals, trends, wild cards or other developments, persistent problems, risks and threats, including matters at the margins of current thinking that challenge past assumptions." |
Horizon scanning is "a technique for detecting early signs of potentially important developments through a systematic examination of potential threats and opportunities, with emphasis on new technology and its effects on the issue at hand." |
Phases and techniques
A 2013 systematic study of 23 formally established health technology HS programs from different countries identified following common phases in a horizon scanning process:
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Identify the users of the HS products.
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Estimate the time available for the HS effort.
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Conduct HS, and identify emerging technologies that potentially affect targeted domain.
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Filter the identified technologies by applying criteria for determining the relevance of the technologies to the HS effort.
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Prioritize the technologies that have passed through the filtering process by applying criteria based on stakeholders’ requirements and needs.
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Assess technologies of high priority for the stakeholders, and predict their potential impacts targeted domain.
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Use peer review to check for quality of the HS process and products.
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Disseminate the HS products to the relevant audiences in a timely fashion.
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Update the HS products on a regular basis or when a significant development occurs related to the technology.
Horizon scanning shares common methods with future-oriented technology analysis.[
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Environmental Research Funders Forum Horizon Scanning Study |
Foresight project on Brain Science, Addiction and Drugs |
Medical Technology Horizon Scanning |
Horizon scan of conservation issues in UK. |
Future Wiki |
50 key issues for the future of Mediterranean wetlands |
HSTOOL – semiautomatic discovery of scientific trends from clusters of publications |
Wildlife Conservation Societies’ Futures of the Wild |
Foresight project on Tackling Obesities: Future Choices |
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Governmental bodies
European Union
European Commission developed the Transport Research and Innovation Monitoring and Information System (TRIMIS) in 2017, an open-access transport information system supporting the implementation of the seven Strategic Transport Research and Innovation Agenda (STRIA) roadmaps.
Joint Research Centre's "Tool for Innovation Monitoring" augments horizon scanning with text mining of available literature.
Germany
Umweltbundesamt applies horizon scanning since 2012 along with trend analysis.
Russia
In the Russian Federation, horizon scanning is performed by Higher School of Economics and financed by Ministry of Education and Science.
Sweden
Swedish Defence Research Agency has developed a software tool named HSTOOL for HS of scientific literature in 2019.
UK
In order to centralize horizon scanning, UK has founded the English Horizon Scanning Centre (HSC) in 2005.
USA
In 2010, The Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality (AHRQ) established the first publicly funded Healthcare Horizon Scanning program of the US.
See also
