In finance and economics, interest is payment from a debtor or deposit-taking financial institution to a lender or depositor of an amount above repayment of the principal sum (that is, the amount borrowed), at a particular rate. It is distinct from a fee which the borrower may pay to the lender or some third party. It is also distinct from dividend which is paid by a company to its shareholders (owners) from its profit or reserve, but not at a particular rate decided beforehand, rather on a pro rata basis as a share in the reward gained by risk taking entrepreneurs when the revenue earned exceeds the total costs.
For example, a customer would usually pay interest to debt from a bank, so they pay the bank an amount which is more than the amount they borrowed; or a customer may earn interest on their savings, and so they may withdraw more than they originally deposited. In the case of savings, the customer is the lender, and the bank plays the role of the borrower.
Interest differs from profit, in that interest is received by a lender, whereas profit is received by the ownership of an asset, investment or business. (Interest may be part or the whole of the profit on an investment, but the two concepts are distinct from each other from an accounting perspective.)
The interest rate is equal to the interest amount paid or received over a particular period divided by the principal sum borrowed or lent (usually expressed as a percentage).
Compound interest means that interest is earned on prior interest in addition to the principal. Due to compounding, the total amount of debt grows exponentially, and its mathematical study led to the discovery of the number e. In practice, interest is most often calculated on a daily, monthly, or yearly basis, and its impact is influenced greatly by its compounding rate.
The first written evidence of compound interest dates roughly 2400 BC. The annual interest rate was roughly 20%. Compound interest was necessary for the development of agriculture and important for urbanization.
While the traditional Middle Eastern views on interest were the result of the urbanized, economically developed character of the societies that produced them, the new Jewish prohibition on interest showed a pastoral, tribal influence. In the early 2nd millennium BC, since silver used in exchange for livestock or grain could not multiply of its own, the Laws of Eshnunna instituted a legal interest rate, specifically on deposits of dowry. Early Muslims called this riba, translated today as the charging of interest.
The First Council of Nicaea, in 325, forbade clergy from engaging in usuryConrad Henry Moehlman (1934). The Christianization of Interest. Church History, 3, p 6. doi:10.2307/3161033. which was defined as lending on interest above 1 percent per month (12.7% AER). Ninth-century ecumenical councils applied this regulation to the laity.Noonan, John T., Jr. 1993. "Development of Moral Doctrine." 54 Theological Stud. 662. Catholic Church opposition to interest hardened in the era of the Scholasticism, when even defending it was considered a heresy. St. Thomas Aquinas, the leading theologian of the Catholic Church, argued that the charging of interest is wrong because it amounts to "double charging", charging for both the thing and the use of the thing.
In the medieval economy, loans were entirely a consequence of necessity (bad harvests, fire in a workplace) and, under those conditions, it was considered morally reproachable to charge interest. It was also considered morally dubious, since no goods were produced through the lending of money, and thus it should not be compensated, unlike other activities with direct physical output such as blacksmithing or farming. For the same reason, interest has often been looked down upon in Muslim World, with almost all scholars agreeing that the Qur'an explicitly forbids charging interest.
Medieval jurists developed several financial instruments to encourage responsible lending and circumvent prohibitions on usury, such as the Contractum trinius.
In the Renaissance era, greater mobility of people facilitated an increase in commerce and the appearance of appropriate conditions for to start new, lucrative businesses. Given that borrowed money was no longer strictly for consumption but for production as well, interest was no longer viewed in the same manner.
The first attempt to control interest rates through manipulation of the money supply was made by the Banque de France in 1847.
Bernoulli noticed that if the frequency of compounding is increased without limit, this sequence can be modeled as follows:
where n is the number of times the interest is to be compounded in a year.
Over centuries, various schools of thought have developed explanations of interest and interest rates. The School of Salamanca justified paying interest in terms of the benefit to the borrower, and interest received by the lender in terms of a premium for the credit risk. In the sixteenth century, Martín de Azpilcueta applied a time preference argument: it is preferable to receive a given good now rather than in the future. Accordingly, interest is compensation for the time the lender forgoes the benefit of spending the money.
Adam Smith, Carl Menger, and Frédéric Bastiat also propounded theories of interest rates. Bohm-Bawerk, E. (1884) Capital and Interest: A Critical History of Economic Theory . In the late 19th century, Swedish economist Knut Wicksell in his 1898 Interest and Prices elaborated a comprehensive theory of economic crises based upon a distinction between natural and nominal interest rates. In the 1930s, Wicksell's approach was refined by Bertil Ohlin and Dennis Robertson and became known as the loanable funds theory. Other notable interest rate theories of the period are those of Irving Fisher and John Maynard Keynes.
Simple interest is calculated according to the following formula:
where
For example, imagine that a credit card holder has an outstanding balance of $2500 and that the simple annual interest rate is 12.99% per annum, applied monthly, so the frequency of applying interest is 12 per year. Over one month,
interest is due (rounded to the nearest cent).
Simple interest applied over 3 months would be
If the card holder pays off only interest at the end of each of the 3 months, the total amount of interest paid would be
which is the simple interest applied over 3 months, as calculated above. (The one cent difference arises due to rounding to the nearest cent.)
Compare, for example, a bond paying 6 percent semiannually (that is, coupons of 3 percent twice a year) with a certificate of deposit (GIC) that pays 6 percent interest once a year. The total interest payment is $6 per $100 par value in both cases, but the holder of the semiannual bond receives half the $6 per year after only 6 months (time preference), and so has the opportunity to reinvest the first $3 coupon payment after the first 6 months, and earn additional interest.
For example, suppose an investor buys $10,000 par value of a US dollar bond, which pays coupons twice a year, and that the bond's simple annual coupon rate is 6 percent per year. This means that every 6 months, the issuer pays the holder of the bond a coupon of 3 dollars per 100 dollars par value. At the end of 6 months, the issuer pays the holder:
Assuming the market price of the bond is 100, so it is trading at par value, suppose further that the holder immediately reinvests the coupon by spending it on another $300 par value of the bond. In total, the investor therefore now holds:
and so earns a coupon at the end of the next 6 months of:
Assuming the bond remains priced at par, the investor accumulates at the end of a full 12 months a total value of:
and the investor earned in total:
The formula for the annual equivalent compound interest rate is:
where
For example, in the case of a 6% simple annual rate, the annual equivalent compound rate is:
where
By repeated substitution, one obtains expressions for B n, which are linearly proportional to B0 and p, and use of the formula for the partial sum of a geometric series results in
A solution of this expression for p in terms of B0 and B n reduces to
To find the payment if the loan is to be finished in n payments, one sets B n = 0.
The PMT function found in spreadsheet programs can be used to calculate the monthly payment of a loan:
An interest-only payment on the current balance would be
The total interest, I T, paid on the loan is
The formulas for a regular savings program are similar, but the payments are added to the balances instead of being subtracted, and the formula for the payment is the negative of the one above. These formulas are only approximate since actual loan balances are affected by rounding. To avoid an underpayment at the end of the loan, the payment must be rounded up to the next cent.
Consider a similar loan but with a new period equal to k periods of the problem above. If r k and p k are the new rate and payment, we now have
Comparing this with the expression for Bk above, we note that
and
The last equation allows us to define a constant that is the same for both problems:
and B k can be written as
Solving for r k, we find a formula for r k involving known quantities and B k, the balance after k periods:
Since B0 could be any balance in the loan, the formula works for any two balances separate by k periods and can be used to compute a value for the annual interest rate.
B* is a scale invariant, since it does not change with changes in the length of the period.
Rearranging the equation for B*, one obtains a transformation coefficient (scale factor):
and we see that r and p transform in the same manner:
The change in the balance transforms likewise:
which gives an insight into the meaning of some of the coefficients found in the formulas above. The annual rate, r12, assumes only one payment per year and is not an "effective" rate for monthly payments. With monthly payments, the monthly interest is paid out of each payment and so should not be compounded, and an annual rate of 12· r would make more sense. If one just made interest-only payments, the amount paid for the year would be 12· r· B0.
Substituting p k = r k B* into the equation for the B k, we obtain
Since B n = 0, we can solve for B*:
Substituting back into the formula for the B k shows that they are a linear function of the r k and therefore the λ k:
This is the easiest way of estimating the balances if the λ k are known. Substituting into the first formula for B k above and solving for λ k+1, we obtain
λ0 and λ n can be found using the formula for λ k above or computing the λ k recursively from λ0 = 0 to λ n.
Since p = rB*, the formula for the payment reduces to
and the average interest rate over the period of the loan is
which is less than r if n > 1.
Payments remain constant over the life of the loan; however, payments are allocated to interest in progressively smaller amounts. In a one-year loan, in the first month, 12/78 of all interest owed over the life of the loan is due; in the second month, 11/78; progressing to the twelfth month where only 1/78 of all interest is due. The practical effect of the Rule of 78s is to make early pay-offs of term loans more expensive. For a one-year loan, approximately 3/4 of all interest due is collected by the sixth month, and pay-off of the principal then will cause the effective interest rate to be much higher than the APR used to calculate the payments.
In 1992, the United States outlawed the use of "Rule of 78s" interest in connection with mortgage refinancing and other consumer loans over five years in term. Certain other jurisdictions have outlawed application of the Rule of 78s in certain types of loans, particularly consumer loans.
The rule provides a good indication for interest rates up to 10%.
In the case of an interest rate of 18 percent, the rule of 72 predicts that money will double after 72/18 = 4 years.
In the case of an interest rate of 24 percent, the rule predicts that money will double after 72/24 = 3 years.
Charging interest equal to inflation preserves the lender's purchasing power, but does not compensate for the time value of money in real terms. The lender may prefer to invest in another product rather than consume. The return they might obtain from competing investments is a factor in determining the interest rate they demand.
However interest rates are set by the market, and it happens frequently that they are insufficient to compensate for inflation: for example at times of high inflation during, for example, the oil crisis; and during 2011 when real yields on many inflation-linked government stocks are negative.
The creditworthiness of businesses is measured by bond rating services and individual's by . The risks of an individual debt may have a large standard deviation of possibilities. The lender may want to cover his maximum risk, but lenders with portfolios of debt can lower the risk premium to cover just the most probable outcome.
Where
However, not all borrowers and lenders have access to the same interest rate, even if they are subject to the same inflation. Furthermore, expectations of future inflation vary, so a forward-looking interest rate cannot depend on a single real interest rate plus a single expected rate of inflation.
Interest rates also depend on credit risk. government debt are normally highly reliable , and the interest rate on government securities is normally lower than the interest rate available to other borrowers.
The equation:
relates expectations of inflation and credit risk to nominal and expected real interest rates, over the life of a loan, where
The default interest is usually much higher than the original interest rate since it is reflecting the aggravation in the financial risk of the borrower. Default interest compensates the lender for the added risk.
From the borrower's perspective, this means failure to make their regular payment for one or two payment periods or failure to pay taxes or insurance premiums for the loan collateral will lead to substantially higher interest for the entire remaining term of the loan.
Banks tend to add default interest to the loan agreements in order to separate between different scenarios.
In some jurisdictions, default interest clauses are unenforceable as against public policy.
Open market operations are one tool within monetary policy implemented by the Federal Reserve to steer short-term interest rates. Using the power to buy and sell treasury securities, the Open Market Desk at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York can supply the market with dollars by purchasing U.S. Treasury notes, hence increasing the nation's money supply. By increasing the money supply or Aggregate Supply of Funding (ASF), interest rates will fall due to the excess of dollars banks will end up with in their reserves. Excess reserves may be lent in the Federal funds market to other banks, thus driving down rates.
National governments (provided, of course, that the country has retained its own currency) can influence interest rates and thus the supply and demand for such loans, thus altering the total of loans and bonds issued. Generally speaking, a higher real interest rate reduces the broad money supply.
Through the quantity theory of money, increases in the money supply lead to inflation. This means that interest rates can affect inflation in the future.
In 1752 David Hume published his essay "Of money" which relates interest to the "demand for borrowing", the "riches available to supply that demand" and the "profits arising from commerce". Schumpeter considered Hume's theory superior to that of Ricardo and Mill, but the reference to profits concentrates to a surprising degree on 'commerce' rather than on industry.
On the question of why interest rates are normally greater than zero, in 1770, Turgot proposed the theory of fructification. By applying an opportunity cost argument, comparing the loan rate with the rate of return on agricultural land, and a mathematical argument, applying the formula for the value of a perpetuity to a plantation, he argued that the land value would rise without limit, as the interest rate approached zero. For the land value to remain positive and finite keeps the interest rate above zero.
Turgot brought the theory of interest close to its classical form. Industrialists
share their profits with capitalists who supply the funds ( Réflexions, LXXI). The share that goes to the latter is determined like all other prices (LXXV) by the play of supply and demand amongst borrowers and lenders, so that the analysis is from the outset firmly planted in the general theory of prices.
Mill's theory is set out the chapter "Of the rate of interest" in his "Principles of political economy". He says that the interest rate adjusts to maintain equilibrium between the demands for lending and borrowing."Of the rate of interest", §1. Individuals lend in order to defer consumption or for the sake of the greater quantity they will be able to consume at a later date owing to interest earned. They borrow in order to anticipate consumption (whose relative desirability is reflected by the time value of money), but entrepreneurs also borrow to fund investment and governments borrow for their own reasons. The three sources of demand compete for loans.§2.
For entrepreneurial borrowing to be in equilibrium with lending:
The interest for money... is... regulated... by the rate of profits which can be made by the employment of capital...Ricardo, chapter "On currency and banks"Ricardo's and Mill's 'profit' is made more precise by the concept of the marginal efficiency of capital (the expression, though not the concept, is due to Keynes), which may be defined as the annual revenue which will be yielded by an extra increment of capital as a proportion of its cost. So the interest rate r in equilibrium will be equal to the marginal efficiency of capital r. Rather than work with r and r as separate variables, we can assume that they are equal and let the single variable r denote their common value.
The investment schedule i ( r) shows how much investment is possible with a return of at least r. In a stationary economy it is likely to resemble the blue curve in the diagram, with a step shape arising from the assumption that opportunities to invest with yields greater than r̂ have been largely exhausted while there is untapped scope to invest with a lower return.Mill §3; Longfield.
Saving is the excess of deferred over anticipated consumption, and its dependence on income is much as described by Keynes (see The General Theory), but in classical theory definitely an increasing function of r. (The dependence of s on income y was not relevant to classical concerns prior to the development of theories of unemployment.) The rate of interest is given by the intersection of the solid red saving curve with the blue investment schedule. But so long as the investment schedule is almost vertical, a change in income (leading in extreme cases to the broken red saving curve) will make little difference to the interest rate.
In some cases the analysis will be less simple. The introduction of a new technique, leading to demand for new forms of capital, will shift the step to the right and reduce its steepness. Or a sudden increase in the desire to anticipate consumption (perhaps through military spending in time of war) will absorb most available loans; the interest rate will increase and investment will be reduced to the amount whose return exceeds it.§3. This is illustrated by the dotted red saving curve.
He also remarks (on the same page) that the classical theory does not explain the usual supposition that "an increase in the quantity of money has a tendency to reduce the rate of interest, at any rate in the first instance".
Keynes's diagram of the investment schedule lacks the step shape which can be seen as part of the classical theory. He objects that
the functions used by classical theory... do not furnish material for a theory of the rate of interest; but they could be used to tell us... what the rate of interest will have to be, if the level of employment which is maintained at a given figure.p181.
Later (p. 184) Keynes claims that "it involves a circular argument" to construct a theory of interest from the investment schedule since
the 'marginal efficiency of capital' partly depends on the scale of current investment, and we must already know the rate of interest before we can calculate what this scale will be.
Wicksell's contribution, in fact, was twofold. First he separated the monetary rate of interest from the hypothetical "natural" rate that would have resulted from equilibrium of capital supply and demand in a barter economy, and he assumed that as a result of the presence of money alone, the effective market rate could fail to correspond to this ideal rate in actuality. Next he supposed that through the mechanism of credit, the rate of interest had an influence on prices; that a rise of the monetary rate above the "natural" level produced a fall, and a decline below that level a rise, in prices. But Wicksell went on to conclude that if the natural rate coincided with the monetary rate, stability of prices would follow.Étienne Mantoux, "Mr Keynes' General Theory", Revue d'Économie Politique, 1937, tr. in Henry Hazlitt, "The critics of Keynesian economics", 1960.In the 1930s Wicksell's approach was refined by Bertil Ohlin and Dennis Robertson and became known as the loanable funds theory.
The doyen of the Austrian school, Murray Rothbard, sees the emphasis on the loan market which makes up the general analysis on interest as a mistaken view to take. As he explains in his primary economic work, Man, Economy, and State, the market rate of interest is but a manifestation of the natural phenomenon of time preference, which is to prefer present goods to future goods. To Rothbard,
Interest is explainable by the rate of time preference among the people. To point to the loan market is insufficient at best. Rather, the rate of interest is what would be observed between the "stages of production", indeed a time market itself, where capital goods which are used to make consumers' goods are ordered out further in time away from the final consumers' goods stage of the economy where consumption takes place. It is this spread (between these various stages which will tend toward uniformity), with consumers' goods representing present goods and producers' goods representing future goods, that the real rate of interest is observed. Rothbard has said that Rothbard has furthermore criticized the Keynesian conception of interest, saying
The interest rate, being one of the many elements of the general system of equilibrium, was, of course, simultaneously determined with all of them so that there was no point at all in looking for any particular element that 'caused' interest.
Keynes acknowledged that the German-Argentine economist Silvio Gesell developed some of the central elements of a precursor theory of interest, decades before he published The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money in 1936. Gesell created a Robinson Crusoe economy thought experiment which showed that interest rates tend to exist in monetary economies while not existing in barter economies. Gesell identified that interest rates are a purely monetary phenomenon, but Keynes believed that Gesell's theory only amounted to "half a theory", since Gesell failed to discern the importance of liquidity. Keynes improved upon Gesell's theory of interest by explicitly recognizing that money has the advantage of liquidity over commodities.
|
|