Papabile ( , ,[
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target="_blank" rel="nofollow"> "papabile" (US) and ; plural: papabili; ) is an unofficial Italian language term coined by and used internationally in many languages to describe a Catholic Church man—in practice, always a cardinal—who is thought of as a likely or possible candidate to be elected pope by the College of Cardinals.
In some cases, a cardinal who is considered papabile is elected pope. Among the papabili cardinals who have been elected pope are Eugenio Pacelli (Pius XII) in 1939, Giovanni Montini (Paul VI) in 1963, Joseph Ratzinger (Benedict XVI) in 2005, Jorge Mario Bergoglio (Francis) in 2013, and Robert Francis Prevost (Leo XIV) in 2025. However, at times the College of Cardinals elects a man who was not considered papabile by most Vatican watchers. In recent years, those who were elected pope though not considered papabile were Angelo Roncalli (John XXIII) in 1958, Albino Luciani (John Paul I) in August 1978, and Karol Wojtyła (John Paul II) in October 1978.
The list of papabili changes as cardinals age. For instance, Carlo Maria Martini was thought to be papabile until he retired from his episcopal see upon reaching 75 years of age in 2002. A famous saying is: "He who enters the Papal conclave as pope, leaves it as a cardinal."
Terminology
The term papabile is at least as old as the 15th century, since it is found in the Catholicon Anglicum.
In Italian language, the word papabile is also used in non-church contexts. This includes usage in reference to short list candidates, i.e. those who, among the available candidates, are most likely to get elected or appointed to a specific position.
Papabili elected pope
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Francesco Castiglioni (elected as Pius VIII in 1829) was papabile at both the 1823 conclave and at the 1829 conclave.
[ ] Pope Pius VII during his lifetime called Cardinal Castiglioni "Pope Pius VIII"
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Gioachino Pecci (elected as Leo XIII in 1878).
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Giacomo della Chiesa (elected as Benedict XV in 1914)
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Eugenio Pacelli (elected as Pius XII in 1939).
[" Medius vestrum stetit quem vos nescetis. Everybody knew what the pope meant". Domenico Cardinale Tardini, Pio XII, Tipografia Poliglotta Vaticana, 1960, p. 105 ]
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Giovanni Montini (elected as Paul VI in 1963). Montini had been discussed as a papabile candidate in the 1958 conclave despite not having been a cardinal at the time; Cardinal Giuseppe Siri during the discussion about Montini was furious that a non-cardinal would even be considered. It was also rumored some of the French cardinals voted in favor of Montini during that conclave. John XXIII had sent vague signals during his reign that he believed his friend Montini (whom he made a cardinal) would be his successor.
[ Conclave A.D. 1963 – Election of Pope Paul VI . YouTube video. Accessed 19 October 2013]
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Joseph Ratzinger (elected as Benedict XVI in 2005).
[Goodstein, Laurie and Elisabetta Povoledo. "Before Smoke Rises at Vatican, It's Romans vs. the Reformers," The New York Times. 11 March 2013; Ivereigh, Austen. "Does cardinal confusion spell a long conclave?" Our Sunday Visitor. 11 March By Austen Ivereigh; excerpt, "A former communications director to the Archbishop emeritus of Westminster (England), Cardinal Cormac Murphy-O'Connor, he accompanied the cardinal to Rome in 2005 for the funeral of Pope John Paul II and election of Pope Benedict XVI". Retrieved 12 March 2013.] On 19 April 2005, he was elected on the second day after four ballots.
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Pope Francis (elected as Francis in 2013).
[ "Choose your own pope – with our interactive Pontifficator" . The Guardian. 12 March 2013. Contains descriptions of all 115 cardinal electors, 13 of whom are marked as papabili.][ Huffington Post Papabile 2013: Top Contenders To Be Next Pope As We Enter Conclave . March 10, 2013. Retrieved 15 March 2013.] Bergoglio was a papabile at the 2005 conclave
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Robert Francis Prevost (elected as Leo XIV in 2025).
Papabili not elected
Being seen as papabile is no guarantee of election, and is sometimes seen as a handicap. (Although the following candidates were widely discussed as candidates publicly, the actual vote results described below are frequently based on rumours and sourced, if at all, from off-the-record reports of individual cardinals.)
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Mariano Rampolla, Leo XIII's Cardinal Secretary of State, was headed for victory in the 1903 conclave, only to be vetoed by Kraków Cardinal Jan Puzyna de Kosielsko on behalf of Austro-Hungarian Emperor Franz Joseph I. With Rampolla blocked, Giuseppe Sarto was elected and became Pius X. One of Pope Pius X's first acts was to abolish the rights of Catholic monarchs to veto.
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Rafael Merry del Val was a widely considered candidate in the 1914 and 1922 conclaves, which eventually elected Benedict XV and Pius XI respectively, although he never garnered enough votes to be in serious contention.
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Giuseppe Siri was widely expected to be elected pope in the 1958 and 1963 conclaves, and continued to be a prime contender in both 1978 conclaves. On the first of these occasions, Angelo Roncalli, an unexpected choice, was elected and became Pope John XXIII.
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Giovanni Benelli, Archbishop of Florence and the leading liberal candidate, was widely expected to be elected pope in both the August and October 1978 conclaves; in fact, he was defeated in both (albeit narrowly, the second time). In August, a candidate few saw as papabile, Albino Luciani, was elected and became Pope John Paul I – with the support of Benelli himself. In October, another such candidate, Karol Wojtyła, was elected as John Paul II.
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Sergio Pignedoli, a towering figure in the church, was Pope Paul VI's closest confidant and widely expected to succeed him. Following the death of Paul VI in 1978, Pignedoli was featured in numerous publications around the world, including on the covers of Time and Newsweek, as a leading contender to be elected pope. In the August 1978 conclave, Pignedoli, the progressive candidate, received nearly half of the votes of the cardinal electors. His main opponent was the conservative cardinal Giuseppe Siri of Genova; however, since both were unable to obtain a majority, a compromise candidate emerged, and Albino Luciani was elected as Pope John Paul I. Thirty three days later, following the sudden death of John Paul I, a second conclave convened in October 1978. Pignedoli was again the leading contender for the papacy, but ultimately Karol Wojtyła was elected as Pope John Paul II.
[Time Magazine. Recent Events 30 June 1980]
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Carlo Maria Martini, Archbishop of Milan from 1980 to 2002 and a Jesuit biblical exegete, was considered to be the most likely successor to John Paul II for much of the 1980s and 1990s but was already suffering from Parkinson's disease by the time the 2005 conclave was convened.
[Catholic News Service. Article based on diary says German cardinal became pope with 84 votes 23 September 2005]
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Francis Arinze, Prefect of the Congregation for Divine Worship and the Discipline of the Sacraments and one of John Paul II's principal advisors, was speculated by some media reports as a highly favoured successor to John Paul II but did not garner enough votes in the 2005 conclave.
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Angelo Scola, Archbishop of Milan, was considered such a front-runner in the 2013 conclave that the Episcopal Conference of Italy had already pre-drafted a press release concerning his election. However, his ties to a corruption probe caused his perception by the fellow cardinals to decline drastically.
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Pietro Parolin, Pope Francis's Cardinal Secretary of State, was often considered a moderate option and a viable successor to Francis but did not garner enough votes in the 2025 conclave to become pope.
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Luis Antonio Tagle, Archbishop of Manila from 2011 to 2020 who was dubbed the "Asian Francis" and seen as the representative of the Catholic Church's progressive wing, was speculated in media reports to be the most likely successor to Pope Francis but did not garner enough votes in the 2025 conclave to become pope. He was also a papabile in the 2013 papal conclave that elected Francis.
Non-papabili elected pope
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Barnaba Chiaramonti (elected as Pius VII in 1800) was not considered papabile but emerged as an alternative candidate following months of deadlock. Chiaramonti was well-regarded among many of the cardinals, but tried to dissuade them from electing him since he was content with being a bishop. Cardinal Jean-Sifrein Maury first proposed Chiaramonti as a compromise candidate to break the stalemate.
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Annibale della Genga (elected as Leo XII in 1823) was not considered papabile due to his physical infirmities and the cardinal himself at the conclave tried to discourage the other electors from voting for him. However, he was elected because the conclave received information about secret societies who were perceived to have grown in strength during the sede vacante period, and some cardinals wanted a quick conclusion to the conclave; his physical condition made some cardinals think that his pontificate would not last long.
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Bartolomeo Cappellari's (elected as Gregory XVI in 1831) election was unexpected and had been influenced by the fact that the most papabile candidate, Giacomo Giustiniani, had been vetoed, therefore resulting in a deadlock.
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Giuseppe Sarto (elected as Pius X in 1903) emerged as an alternative candidate after the veto of Mariano Rampolla.
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Achille Ratti (elected as Pius XI in 1922) was elected as a compromise candidate between the conservative faction headed by Rafael Merry del Val and the moderate faction headed by Pietro Gasparri. Gasparri also threw his support behind Ratti and urged his supporters to vote for Ratti.
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Angelo Roncalli (elected as John XXIII in 1958). Some commentators like William Doino dispute the contention that Roncalli was a non-papabile and argue that "by the time of Pius XII's death, in 1958, Cardinal Roncalli 'contrary to the idea he came out of nowhere to become pope' was actually one of those favored to be elected. He was well-known, well-liked, and trusted."
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Albino Luciani (elected as John Paul I in 1978). Although Luciani was not considered papabile, one of the papabile cardinals, Giovanni Benelli, used his influence to persuade the others to elect Luciani at the conclave.
[Time Magazine. In Rome, a Week off Suspense 28 August 1978][Time Magazine. A Swift, Stunning Choice 4 September 1978]
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Karol Wojtyła (elected as John Paul II in 1978) was elected as a compromise candidate due to the failure of the leading papabili Giuseppe Siri and Giovanni Benelli to obtain the requisite majority and the only other viable Italian compromise candidate Giovanni Colombo announced to the cardinal-electors at the conclave that he would decline the papacy if elected.
See also
Notes
Bibliography
News articles
External links
